Velocity Forecasting
Use historical team velocity to estimate future delivery ranges, test the effect of forecast windows and variability, forecast backlog completion and see how changing capacity or scope growth alters the expected delivery range.
Velocity forecasting should communicate a range, not manufacture certainty.
The tool uses recent completed-work history to calculate a central velocity estimate and an illustrative low-to-high planning range. Learners can change the historical window, backlog size, future capacity and scope-growth assumptions to see how the forecast responds.
Velocity Forecasting — Step by Step
Eight locked stages move from forecast context through velocity history, forecast basis, historical spread, remaining backlog, future conditions, a delivery shock and management review.
Historical Velocity, Forecast Range and Backlog Completion
Reveal the forecast context to begin.
See which sprints are driving the selected forecast.
Test a Delivery Forecast
Experiment Mode is isolated from the guided demonstration. Change the historical window, backlog size, future capacity and expected scope growth to see how the completion range changes.
Test velocity-forecasting judgement.
Velocity-forecasting cues
Velocity
Story points or other relative units actually completed by the team in a sprint.
Mean
Arithmetic average of the selected sprint history; sensitive to unusually high or low sprints.
Median
Middle value of the selected history; less influenced by an extreme observation.
Historical Spread
Use variability to create an illustrative planning range rather than a single deterministic value.
Scope Growth
New work entering the backlog reduces net burn-down and can materially extend the forecast.
Velocity Is Team-specific
Do not compare teams mechanically or convert story points into a universal number of hours.
Use recent team history, visible assumptions and an uncertainty range. When capacity or scope changes materially, revise the forecast rather than defending the old date.