Risk Probability-Impact Matrix
Rate probability and impact consistently, plot risks on a 5×5 matrix, calculate comparative risk scores, distinguish risk exposure bands, prioritize attention, and see how a planned response can change residual risk.
Turn Risk Judgement into a Consistent Prioritization View.
A probability-impact matrix provides a structured way to compare identified risks using agreed rating scales. This demonstration uses the INDENTRA five-level probability scale and five-level impact scale. Probability is scored 1–5, impact is scored 1/3/5/7/9, and the approved probability-impact matrix determines the overall risk rating.
- Review six project risk statements written as Cause(s) ⇒ Event ⇒ Impact(s).
- Understand the five-level probability and impact scales.
- Assign probability ratings consistently.
- Assign impact ratings consistently.
- Plot each risk on the matrix.
- Calculate probability × impact scores using the approved scoring values.
- Prioritize risks while recognizing that equal scores do not make risks identical.
- Apply a response and compare inherent with residual risk.
Risk Probability-Impact Matrix — Step by Step
Complete each locked stage before the next unlocks. Every reveal changes the matrix, risk markers, score display, or residual-risk view.
Review the Risk Register Entries
Probability × Impact Prioritization
Risk entries are introduced before ratings are applied.
Focus Mode moves you to the Guided Demonstration, then hides the rest of the page while keeping the current learning stage and matrix visible together. Zoom affects only the matrix pane.
Risk Ratings and Priority
Ratings and scores appear progressively with the guided sequence.
| Risk | Description | Probability | Impact | Score | Priority Band | Proximity |
|---|
Re-rate a Risk and See the Priority Change
Experiment Mode is isolated from the guided demonstration. Select a risk, change its probability and impact ratings, and optionally apply a response to see the residual position.
Quick Knowledge Check
INDENTRA Probability, Impact and Matrix Scoring Guidelines
Probability Scoring Levels
| Scale | Score | Description | Probability | Narrative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very High | 5 | The risk event is extremely likely | >50% | Based on individual/industry experience, the risk has occurred at least in every second project. |
| High | 4 | The risk event is very likely | 30–50% | Based on individual/industry experience, the risk has occurred in about two out of five projects. |
| Medium | 3 | The risk event is likely | 10–30% | Based on individual/industry experience, the risk has occurred in about one out of five projects. |
| Low | 2 | The risk event is unlikely | 2–10% | Based on individual/industry experience, the risk has occurred in about one out of ten projects. |
| Very Low | 1 | The risk event is very unlikely | <2% | Based on individual/industry experience, the risk has occurred in about one out of one hundred projects. |
Impact Scoring Levels
| Scale | Score | NPV | Cost / Duration | Safety | Reputation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very High | 9 | >50% of project NPV | Cost increase/savings or schedule delay/acceleration changes project NPV by more than 50% | Causing fatal injuries | Threat: loss of many clients/adverse publicity. Opportunity: new business with new clients/favourable publicity. |
| High | 7 | 30–50% of project NPV | Cost or schedule effect changes project NPV by 30–50% | Causing serious injuries | Threat: loss of a single client. Opportunity: new business with an existing client. |
| Medium | 5 | 10–30% of project NPV | Cost or schedule effect changes project NPV by 10–30% | Causing slight injuries | Threat: high increase of complaints ratio. Opportunity: high decrease of complaints ratio. |
| Low | 3 | 5–10% of project NPV | Cost or schedule effect changes project NPV by 5–10% | Causing very slight injuries | Threat: small increase of complaints ratio. Opportunity: small decrease of complaints ratio. |
| Very Low | 1 | <5% of project NPV | Cost or schedule effect changes project NPV by less than 5% | Negligible impact | Negligible impact |
Probability–Impact Matrix
| Impact \ Probability | Very Low 1 | Low 2 | Medium 3 | High 4 | Very High 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very High 9 | Medium · 9 | High · 18 | Very High · 27 | Very High · 36 | Very High · 45 |
| High 7 | Low · 7 | Medium · 14 | High · 21 | Very High · 28 | Very High · 35 |
| Medium 5 | Low · 5 | Medium · 10 | Medium · 15 | High · 20 | High · 25 |
| Low 3 | Very Low · 3 | Low · 6 | Medium · 9 | Medium · 12 | Medium · 15 |
| Very Low 1 | Very Low · 1 | Very Low · 2 | Very Low · 3 | Low · 4 | Low · 5 |